Can fire-gutted suburbs rebuild safer? Here’s what the experts say

The wildfires that devastated Southern California, reducing entire neighborhoods to checkerboards of ash, have left behind tough questions about how to rebuild in this land of dry brush and wind.

The answers might involve more than just new homes made of flame-resistant materials.

Altadena and Pacific Palisades — essentially reduced to blank slates — have a chance to reimagine themselves in a fundamentally safer way, experts who study wildfire behavior say. A true paradigm shift could include strategic buffer zones, permanent escape routes and urban firebreaks.

“If we don’t do something different,” UC Santa Barbara adjunct professor and wildfire specialist Max Moritz says, “we’re going to re-create what just happened.”

Some changes would be simple; others might require new zoning laws or force homeowners to relocate.

The Times created a map showing a hypothetical Southern California city beside the mountains and asked experts to offer their wish list of fire-risk prevention measures. The areas marked by letters indicate how the city could be reconfigured and how existing areas could be used to defend against the next major wildfire.

The most effective changes might also be the trickiest.

Instead of rebuilding neighborhoods that border the wilderness, communities could establish a protective shield of parkland, agricultural fields or even a golf course. Think of it as a speed bump for onrushing flames.

This buffer zone could be reinforced by pockets of open space within the urban landscape. A strip mall, for instance, could be transformed into tennis courts or a public garden with fire-resistant plants. The city could create a network of paved bike paths.

These features would serve as firebreaks, places for first responders to make a stand and refuge for fleeing residents.

“We’re always thinking about layers of redundancy ... about wildfire hitting a space that is more defensible,” says Jonah Susskind, director of climate strategy for the SWA design firm.

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Through a planning tool known as “transfer of development rights,” homeowners in high-risk areas could work with city officials to exchange for property in safer neighborhoods. Some might gladly leave, but others might resist surrendering prime real estate with a view. Moritz concedes, “There are a lot of people who will find that objectionable.”

At the neighborhood scale, experts suggest a few predictable safety measures. And something unexpected.

On any given street, houses facing the expected wildfire path could be displaced to create yet another buffer zone. Power lines could be sunk underground. Fences, which carry flame from home to home, could be switched from wood to metal or masonry.

Also, in a state that needs housing, displaced residences could be replaced by accessory dwelling units on the same block. Big lots could be divided to accommodate two homes.

It might sound counterintuitive, but increased density can actually be safer if structures are built to the latest standards and landscaped with fire-resistant plants, experts say. Simply put, flames have less room and fuel to spread.

A 2023 report from the Federal Emergency Management Agency points out that, unlike scattered homes, “higher-density designs can be viewed as one large ‘building’ or development,” making them easier to defend.

The problem is, fire science research has yet to determine how close is too close.

“Homes may still have to be greater than some minimum distance apart,” Moritz says. “It could be 10 feet or 15 feet. No one knows.”

Any argument for rebuilding safer and smarter comes with two significant disclaimers.

Southern Californians might never accept some of the recommendations, especially when it comes to relocating. Also, citing the Eaton and Palisades wildfires, Susskind says that “with 100-mph winds, none of this matters.”

But such extreme conditions are rare and individual homeowners can take steps to gird themselves against more-common wildfires.

Residential properties should be viewed in terms of three zones, starting with a 5-foot perimeter directly around the house. Anything that can burn should be cleared from this area and replaced with hardscape such as gravel or cement.

There are additional limitations for the next two zones extending outward; many of them relate to trimming vegetation and keeping things such as propane barbecues and recreational vehicles at a distance.

During a recent news conference outside Dodger Stadium, Gov. Gavin Newsom hinted at the need for better choices — easy and difficult — as Southern California strives to rebound.

“We have to adapt to reality,” he said. “We’re not going to double down on stupid.”

Graphics development by Sean Greene and Vanessa Martínez, data and graphics assistant editors.